WHITROCK: Women’s soccer back at center stage

Few things excite sports fans more than a playoff. The concept makes more sense for some sports than for others –– aren’t 2,430 regular season games enough for identifying which baseball team is best? However, the central concept is sound. Get rid of all the undeserving teams, then have the remaining qualified teams square off. Winner advances, loser exits. The championship contest is a fitting climax, its winner immortalized, its loser marginalized.

And after 20 games, 53 total goals –– 39 for, 14 against — and a thrilling come-from-behind victory in the America East semifinals, the Boston University women’s soccer team finds itself at the final stage of its conference journey. There is one game left, and it’s for all the marbles.

But there’s more than marbles at stake. Despite an impressive 13-5-2 overall record, the Terriers’ RPI is too low to support inclusion in the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team. The same can be said for Binghamton, whose 9-6-2 record and plus-one goal differential also fail to impress. There are two teams and one bid –– it’s not hard to figure out why this Saturday’s game is important.

Realistically, both BU’s –– Boston and Binghamton –– had torpedoed any chance of an at-large berth in the national tournament by mid-September. The Terriers played six consecutive road games between Sept. 2 and Sept. 18, winning none and losing four. The Bearcats started their season 0-3-1, with only four remaining non-conference games to cover up for earlier mishaps. In a conference lacking depth, neither team’s strength of schedule allowed for September slipups.

With that in mind, each team’s conference opener took on added meaning. After underwhelming play in the first half of the season, America East opposition represented a chance to put earlier troubles in the rearview mirror and focus on the remaining available route to the NCAA Tournament. Oh, and the two BU’s embarked on their conference schedules by playing each other.

That game and its result, a dominant 3-0 win for the Terriers, frames Saturday’s action. Both teams won six of their seven remaining conference games, leaving the Sept. 27 contest as the difference between first and second place. Boston University has the regular-season crown, home-field advantage, and perhaps most importantly, confidence due to its earlier success against Binghamton.

The Terriers’ success during the later part of the season is a product of controlling the game’s flow. Boston University regularly enjoys an advantage in possession, moving the ball into the offensive end and consistently keeping it there.

In the box score, that advantage appears all over the place. The Terriers attempt more shots than their opponents and take more corner kicks. Technical superiority and well-placed passes produce a high percentage of assisted goals. Surviving sustained pressure for 90 minutes is a tall task for any opponent.

The Bearcats’ defense cracked early against the Terrier pressure in late September, surrendering two goals before the 20-minute mark. While more Terrier goals on Saturday wouldn’t surprise, Binghamton cannot operate under the assumption that its defense will once again surrender three goals. Unless the Bearcats can find a way to control the ball for extended stretches, they won’t be able to keep up in a shootout –– there won’t be enough scoring chances.

Only one conference opponent gave the Terriers significant trouble –– Stony Brook. If the Bearcats want to give themselves a significant chance of victory, the Seawolves have provided a recipe. The steps are simple enough to follow but rather difficult to execute.

In both games against the Terriers, Stony Brook scored first, and did so early. Playing from behind is hard enough for a team when the stakes are relatively low. An early lead for the Bearcats in the championship game would be a body blow for the Terriers. Of course, BU managed to come back and defeat Stony Brook in the teams’ second meeting, but of the Terriers’ wins this season it was arguably the most difficult.

If Binghamton can establish an early lead –– and that’s a big if –– the Bearcats need to maximize their possession. That doesn’t mean stalling. It means making decisions that minimize risk while looking for opportunities when the Terriers try to press the action. Fewer scoring chances for each side make it harder for teams to separate themselves, effectively favoring the underdog.

Perhaps the suggested strategy sells Binghamton short, but make no mistake, this is Boston University’s championship to lose. Stony Brook was the team with the best chance to take the Terriers out. The Seawolves had a one-goal lead with less than 20 minutes remaining, but couldn’t close the deal.

The Terriers took their most formidable opponent’s best shot, came perilously close to elimination, and still found a way to advance. They’re the best team in America East.

Sure, it’s a tournament, and strange things happen in tournaments –– how else do you explain an 83-78 St. Louis Cardinals team winning the 2006 World Series? But those occurrences are strange due to their infrequency. Inexplicable losses are the other Terrier soccer team’s domain.

Fast-forward to Saturday and Clarissima’s final lines will say everything you need to know: “Our alma mater evermore, hail BU!”